WASHINGTON: An upswing in economic risks due to rising trade tensions and debt levels has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cut its forecast for world growth for this year and next.
With trade growth set to slow sharply amid a trade war between the United States and China, the IMF cut its outlook for global GDP by two-tenths to 3.7% for 2018 and 2019, according to the quarterly World Economic Outlook report issued on Monday.
The revised estimates include a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the US and China in 2019.
The IMF warns that risks highlighted in previous reports “have become more pronounced or have partially materialised” in the real world.
The dominant US economy has been shielded from the ill effects so far due to the stimulus provided through tax cuts and spending policies, but that will wear off by 2020.
Still, the trade disputes sparked by President Donald Trump that have led to tit-for-tat exchanges of tariffs among major trading partners are affecting China, other Asian economies and more vulnerable countries like Argentina and Turkey, along with Brazil.
“Trade policy reflects politics and politics remains unsettled in several countries, posing further risks,” IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld told a press briefing in Bali, where the fund kicks off its annual meetings this week.
“Despite the possibility of less political space in some countries… making consensus on sound policies often harder to reach, there won’t be a better time than now for further action.”
Growth estimates for the euro area and Britain also were revised down. The report warned that growth “may have peaked in some major economies.”
“Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded,” the IMF said.
Rising trade tensions are a key challenge to the world economy as “protectionist rhetoric increasingly turned into action.” That includes Trump’s imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products worldwide.
The IMF warned the uncertainty caused by the trade disputes “could lead firms to postpone or forgo capital spending and hence slow down growth in investment and demand.”
If it continues, the “escalation of trade tensions to an intensity that carries systemic risk is a distinct possibility without policy cooperation.”
Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2% this year, six-tenths less than expected in July and nearly a full point lower than the forecast in April. For next year, trade is seen growing just 4%, a half point less than the prior forecast.
When the world’s two biggest economies – the US and China – are at odds, that is going to create “a situation where everyone is going to suffer”, Obstfeld said. “Growth is now much more uneven” than six months ago, he told reporters.
But the outgoing chief economist – who retires from the Fund later this year – added that it was a mixed picture with some Latin American and African nations getting growth forecast upgrades.
(This news/article originally appeared in The Express Tribune on October 10th, 2018)