THE RUPEE: mixed patterns

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The rupee moved both ways in relation to the dollar during the week, ended on March 02, 2019. The rupee depicted slight changes in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.55 and Rs 138.60.

INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee lost 40 paisas versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.70 and Rs 139.20. The rupee did not show any significant change against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.30 and Rs 158.10.

Commenting on the present trend in the money market, some currency experts observed that dollar went up following the rising tensions between India and Pakistan after Pulwama incident.

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They expect that if war like situation settle down in the near-term, the rupee may resist it’s reduction against the dollar. Experts said that despite the disturbed situation at LoC, present economic condition is not so bad owing to balanced policies and strategies of the government.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at 14.815 billion dollars, hopefully, this factor may help easing supply of the US currency.

INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee inched up by two paisas versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.58 and Rs 138.60. On Tuesday, the rupee lost 27 paisas versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.85 and Rs 138.87. On Wednesday, the rupee continued overnight weakness versus the dollar, losing more 38 paisas for buying and selling at Rs 139.23 and Rs 139.25. On Thursday, the rupee recovered overnight losses versus the dollar, gaining 43 paisas for buying and selling at Rs 138.80 and Rs 138.85.

On Friday, the rupee maintained upward trend in terms of the dollar, picking up 25 paisas for buying and selling at Rs 138.55 and Rs 138.60.

OPEN MARKET RATES: On Feb 25, the rupee was almost unchanged in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.30 and Rs 138.80, they said. The rupee almost traded within present levels against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.30 and Rs 158.00.

On Feb 26, the rupee also shed 20 paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.50 and Rs 139.00, they said. The rupee fell by 20 paisas against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.50 and Rs 158.30.

Also Read: THE RUPEE: mixed patterns

On Feb 27, the rupee also dropped 20 paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.70 and Rs 139.20, they said. The rupee also lost 70 paisas against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 157.20 and Rs 159.00.

On Feb 28, the rupee shed 30 paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 139.00 and Rs 139.50. The rupee appreciated by 20 paisas against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 157.00 and Rs 158.80.

On March 1st, the rupee recovered 30 paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.70 and Rs 139.20. The rupee appreciated by 50 paisas against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.50 and Rs 158.30. On 2nd March, the rupee maintained overnight levels in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.70 and Rs 139.20. The rupee gained 20 paisas against the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.30 and Rs 158.10.

OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose and the yen sagged in early Asian trade on Monday after US President Donald Trump said he will delay increasing tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1, citing “substantial progress” in trade talks.

The offshore yuan strengthened 0.3 percent to 6.6806 yuan against the dollar, its highest level since mid-July, also on the news he will not raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent.

The Japanese yen eased 0.1 percent to 110.75 yen to the dollar, while the euro gained 0.1 percent to $1.1346. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies barely moved and was at 96.446.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.000, the greenback was available versus the Malaysian ringgit at 4.068 and the US currency was at 6.690 in relation to the Chinese yuan.

In the second Asian trade, the yen on Tuesday hovered near its weakest against the dollar this year after optimism over Sino-US trade negotiations boosted investors’ appetite for riskier assets during the previous session.

Sterling spiked to its highest since Jan. 31 on reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May was considering delaying a deadline on the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The safe-haven Japanese yen was steady at 111.05 yen after falling as low as 111.24 yen during the previous session, its lowest since Dec. 27.

The dollar rose more than 0.3 percent versus the yen on Monday after US President Donald Trump said he will delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1, and that he would plan a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to conclude an agreement, assuming the trade talks make additional progress.

The dollar was available versus the Indian rupee at Rs 71.060, the greenback was at 4.070 against the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was 6.700 in relation to the Chinese yuan.

In the third Asian trade, the dollar remained near a three-week low on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would stay patient on monetary policy and as the pound rallied.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 96.056 after shedding 0.4 percent overnight, when it stooped to 95.948, its lowest since Feb. 5.

Powell said on Tuesday that rising risks and recent soft data were unlikely to prevent solid growth for the US economy this year, but that the Fed would remain “patient” in its decisions on further interest rate hikes.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.135, the greenback was at 4.064 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.688 versus the Chinese yuan.

In the fourth Asian trade, the dollar held above a three-week low on Thursday as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over the progress in US-China trade talks, while sterling rallied on bets that the chance of a no-deal Brexit was shrinking.

Monthly gauges of factory activity in both China and Japan came in weaker than expected on Thursday, offering fresh evidence that the seven-month US-Sino trade dispute was taking a toll on economic growth around the world.

The dollar mostly held onto gains booked during the previous session after US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told a Congressional hearing it was too early to predict an outcome in US-China trade negotiations.

The dollar index against a basket of six major rivals last traded a shade lower at 96.085. The dollar was available against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.160, the greenback was at 4.069 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.682 in relation to the Chinese yuan.

In the final Asian trade, the dollar hovered near a 10-week high against the yen on Friday, thanks to a surge in Treasury yields after US gross domestic product data topped expectations. The greenback was a touch higher at 111.445 yen and within striking distance of 111.495, its strongest level since Dec. 20 brushed overnight. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 96.222 after grinding out a 0.15 percent gain on Thursday, when it pulled back from a three-week trough of 95.824.

The overnight wobbles in the US currency came as the euro rallied on growing expectations that the European economy may have turned a corner. But the dollar managed to claw back its losses after data showed US gross domestic product increased at a 2.6 percent annualised rate in the fourth quarter, above economists’ forecasts for a 2.3 percent gain.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 70.833, the greenback was at 4.070 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.698 in terms of the Chinese yuan.

In the final US trade, the dollar rose on Friday, hitting 10-week-highs against the yen, as risk appetite improved amid a more upbeat outlook on the euro and the prospect of a trade deal between China and the United States. “Risk-on sentiment amid a global stock rally worked in favour of the euro and commodity rivals like the loonie, Aussie and kiwi dollars, while rising Treasury yields have pulled the greenback out of its biggest hole in weeks,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington. Friday’s slew of weaker-than expected US economic data weighed on the dollar initially, especially the manufacturing index, but the greenback rallied to trade higher on the day.

(This news/article originally appeared in Business Recorder on March 4th, 2019)

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