The Rupee: Steady trend

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SOURCEBusiness Recorder
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KARACHI: The rupee held present levels against the dollar on the local currency market during the week, ended on Nov 16, 2019.

INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: The rupee gained modestly in relation to the dollar for buying at Rs 155.38 while the national currency was unmoved for selling at Rs 155.42.

OPEN MARKET RATES: The rupee depicted no change in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.50. While, the rupee shed by 50 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.80 and Rs 172.30.

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Explaining the rupee’s stable trend versus the dollar in the local currency market, Malik Bostan, President Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP) said that the small or big dollar investors still hold dollars owing to long-awaited Financial Action Task Force (FATF) decision and Kashmir issue. If major issues on the economic and political fronts solved, the local currency likely to show further improvement versus the dollar, he added.

INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee inched up by two paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.43 and Rs 155.48. On Tuesday, the rupee traded within a narrow band in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.44 and Rs 155.46.

Also Read: THE RUPEE: Minor changes

On Wednesday, the rupee picked up four paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.38 and Rs 155.42, they said.

On Thursday, the rupee picked up four paisas in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.38 and Rs 155.42. On Friday, the rupee picked up two paisas in relation to the dollar for buying at Rs 155.38 while the national currency was unmoved for selling at Rs 155.42.

OPEN MARKET RATES: On Nov 11, the rupee was unchanged in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.50. The rupee rose by 20 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.30 and Rs 171.80.

On Nov 12, the rupee did not move any side versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.50. The rupee picked up 30 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.50 and Rs 172.00.

On Nov 13, the rupee was unchanged in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.50. The rupee shed 30 paisas versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.80 and Rs 172.30. On Nov 14, the rupee was unchanged in terms of the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.40. The rupee rose by 20 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.30 and Rs 171.80. On Nov 15, the rupee was inert in terms of the dollar for buying at Rs 155.20 while it fell by 10 paisas for selling at Rs 155.50. The rupee shed it’s value in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.60 and Rs 172.10.

On Nov 16, the rupee did not move any side in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 155.20 and Rs 155.50, they said. The rupee slipped by 20 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 170.80 and Rs 172.30, they said.

OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, the dollar held near multi-week highs on Monday amid optimism that the United States and China would roll back tariffs that have hurt global growth.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood flat at 98.323, just off its 3-1/2-week high of 98.404 touched on late Friday. Moves were slight as traders kept a wary eye for further news on the US-China trade war.

Officials from both countries said late last week that a rollback of some tit-for-tat tariffs had been agreed as part of a preliminary deal, that has still to be finalised, aimed at ending the trade war.

Even though that was subsequently denied by US President Donald Trump on Friday, he did not completely rule out a deal and US benchmark treasuries held above a key support level at 1.9%, buoying the currency.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.358, the greenback was available at 4.140 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 7.000 in terms of the Chinese yuan.

In the second Asian trade, sterling held gains in Asian trade on Tuesday, having hit a six-month high versus the euro and rising as much as 1% against the dollar overnight, as the risk of a hung parliament in UK elections eased slightly.

In a significant boost for Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of the Dec. 12 election, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said his party was standing down candidates in seats won by the Conservatives in 2017 and would instead focus on challenging anti-Brexit politicians.

The pound rallied to as high as $1.2896 on the news, which the market had interpreted as reducing the probability of a hung- or Labour led- government that would further complicate Britain’s exit from the European Union.

The dollar was available against the Malaysian ringgit at 4.142 and the greenback was trading at 7.003versus the Chinese yuan. Indian markets were closed for a public holiday.

In the third Asian trade, the beaten-up New Zealand dollar soared 1% on Wednesday after the central bank unexpectedly left interest rates on hold, while most other major currencies were little changed.

But after two cuts this year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said it saw no urgency to ease policy again.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.700, the US currency was available at 4.151 versus the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was at 7.018 in terms of the Chinese yuan.

In the fourth Asian trade, doubts that securing a trade agreement between the United States and China is far from a done deal helped to lift safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc on Thursday, while pulling the yuan lower.

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US-China trade negotiations have ‘hit a snag’ over farm purchases, with Beijing not wanting a deal that looks one-sided in favour of the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The report came after US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China was “close,” but offered no details and warned that he would raise tariffs “substantially” on Chinese goods if there was no deal.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 72.095, the greenback was available at 4.157 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 7.020 versus the Chinese yuan.

In the final Asian trade, the dollar and riskier trade-exposed currencies found some support on Friday as fresh hopes for a breakthrough in Sino-US trade talks were tempered with caution.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said late on Thursday that the two parties were getting close to a deal and the “mood music is pretty good”.

He offered no new details, but the sentiment was enough to reverse a little of the safe-haven Japanese yen’s overnight gain and to buoy the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.715, the greenback was at 4.152 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was available at 7.009 versus the dollar.

In the final US trade, the dollar was lower on Friday as some optimism for the ongoing trade talks with China buoyed trade-linked currencies like the euro and the British pound.

US-China negotiations continued on Friday as both sides sought to hammer out a “phase one” trade pact. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said progress was being made on the agreement’s details, which helped lift trade-exposed currencies at the expense of safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen.

(This news/article originally appeared in Business Recorder on November 18th, 2019)

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